Germany's government announced a package of measures in June that should help the nation get on pace to lower overall emissions by 65% by 2030 when compared to 1990. This is because the country's transportation sector has so far fallen short of its emissions targets.

The new "Deutschlandticket" launched in May, a subscription service that allows users to utilize regional trains and buses, trams, metros, as well as some ferries across the country for €49 per month, is one of the primary measures promoted by Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP/Renew Europe).

Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated to newspaper Taz in January that "with our decisions, we ensure that we can achieve the climate targets and at the same time preserve prosperity in our country." Scholz referred to the predecessor of the €49 ticket, the temporary introduction of a similar €9 ticket over the summer of 2022, as "one of the best ideas we ever had."

The Federal Environment Agency published a forecast along with a report from the German Council of Experts on Climate Change, which advises the government, stating that the transportation sector is far from meeting its emissions reduction targets for the years leading up to 2030 and that the €49 ticket makes little difference.

According to the expert council, the sector will overshoot its emissions trajectory by 117 to 191 million tonnes of CO2 during this decade. The huge latitude was caused by conflicting predictions between the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) and the Transport Ministry regarding the efficacy of climate measures.

The UBA only anticipates a reduction in CO2 emissions of 0.5 to 0.6 million tonnes annually for the Deutschlandticket, which will total 4.2 million tonnes by 2030.

The transport ministry, on the other hand, believes it will be more efficient and anticipates a total reduction in emissions of 22.6 million tonnes until 2030 as a result of drivers using the new option less frequently.

27 million people lack regular access to public transportation
The expert council observed in its report that the transport ministry's figure "appears overestimated" because it does not fully take into account the public transportation system's capacity restrictions and the diminished comfort and hence attractiveness in the case of more passengers.

The think tank Agora Verkehrswende added that the Deutschlandticket "is of no help, especially in sparsely populated regions where there are hardly any buses and trains."

In the 83 million-person nation of Germany, "about 27 million people either have no connection to public transport in their vicinity or only use it a few times a day," the think tank stated in a statement.

The Federal Environment Agency forwarded inquiries concerning the gap between the forecasts to the Transport Ministry.

"I would advise you to ask the ministries directly about their modeling. Particularly given that the modeling done by the BMDV [Federal Ministry of Digital and Transport] is not available," a UBA researcher told EURACTIV.

An inquiry for comments was not answered by the ministry of transportation.

The usefulness of other methods is also disputed
The expert committee questioned the predictions of the transport ministry on a number of other metrics as well.

While the additional 14.1 million tonnes of CO2 avoided due to "efficiency gains through automated and connected driving" would be "hardly expectable," the expert council noted that the 22.6 million tonnes of CO2 reduced due to more people working from home and reducing commuting kilometers would be "largely realistic."

The experts also point out that the Economy Ministry, headed by Green Minister Robert Habeck, and the Transport Ministry, headed by Wissing of the liberal FDP, both overestimate the impact of a new CO2 fee that will be introduced to road tolls beginning in December 2023.

The Transport Ministry predicts a decrease of 22.5 million tonnes of CO2, whereas the Climate Ministry anticipates a reduction of 17.9 million tonnes.

The Greens won the CO2 tax on road freight transportation as part of a protracted climate protection agreement earlier this year. The measure's revenue will help the struggling German train company Deutsche Bahn.

A representative of the German Association for Haulage and Logistics (DSLV) told EURACTIV: "The federal government is concerned with generating revenue, not with the steering effect on the engines." 

The federal government is obviously aware that neither alternative drives nor charging infrastructure are available to a sufficient extent to realise a rapid shift [to zero-emission vehicles] on the road because revenues from the new toll are expected to increase, rather than decline, over the coming years.

The transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) would happen more quickly, according to the DSLV spokeswoman, if the CO2 levy were in place.